Monthly Each Way Betting Report #9 – March

This is the Pursue FIRE Each Way Betting Report. Starting with a bank of just over £500, horses have been selected for ‘each way bets’ based on nothing other than their perceived statistical value across a number of bookmakers using specialised software from OddsMonkey. To date, my account has grown over 1,000% over an eight-month period to more than £6,400.

Each month I summarise my results and offer insights, tips, and tricks and show my real numbers. To learn more about Each Way Betting and how you can get started, please check out my Full Guide To Each Way Betting.

Each Way Betting Report 8

Welcome everyone back to yet another Each Way Betting report, covering the month of March 2019. If you are new to my blog and wish to follow my each way betting journey from the start, you can catch up on the previous monthly reports here:

For a more fluid view of results, I also maintain a live results page that updates each day as bets are settled. If you want to see a visual of how the results have been since inception (including the upswings and downswings) this is a great place to go! When you are buried in the daily results it can be hard sometimes to keep the longer-term perspective.

This chart emphatically shows that each way betting has been a hugely successful side hustle for me. Go check it out!

Before we continue, please note that usual disclaimer that this post includes affiliate links to OddsMonkey. In my opinion, Each Way Betting would not be possible without the brilliant Each Way Matcher Tool. If you are interested to try it out, please consider following the link. You can try the features out and OddsMonkey offer a full 30-day, 100% money-back guarantee if it’s not for you.

Cheltenham Festival!

Okay, with the usual introductions and disclaimers aside, the xxx

So, with the suspension and an already shorter month than usual, how did this impact upon returns for February?

March Results:

To answer this question, let’s first take a look at how the month panned out in graphical form. In a slight departure from the previous format, the waterfall chart below plots the daily results in a cumulative fashion, with the final bar representing the total profit or loss. Let’s check it out for March…

Pursue FIRE EWB Feb

Wait, what! This new chart format can’t be right? It says I lost money…. quite a bit of money in fact. Well, the chart sadly does not lie. March was indeed a losing month. After 8 straight months of positive, compounding growth, March turned out to be a stinker!

So, after a phenomenal start to 2019 (January and February combined, netted £xxx in porofits) March was indeed a losing month. as you can see, February turned out to be comfortably my best month on record each way betting, trumping the exceptional returns from January. In total, February yielded a total profit of £2,463, lifting my total bank to another new high of £6,448. Put another way, that’s a 61.8% growth in the bank for the month.

Since inception in July, that’s a cumulative gross return of 1,170% taking the starting bank of £507 to £6,448. What’s more, I’ve achieved this while actually lowering my risk per bet to below my original 1% risk level… more on that later..

Now, remember that the chart above represents the daily profit or loss – the aggregation of all the results per day. It smoothes out, to some degree, the daily variance of each way betting.

To give you a greater sense of the daily varience in February, here is a chart of the profit and loss by individual bet in time order.

Pursue FIRE EWB Feb

What was most interesting were the last two days of the month. February 27th yielded my second highest daily profit on record at £1,270, only to be followed by my worst day on record which saw a loss of £481 on the 28th – check out that nasty slope right at the end of the chart… that’s what a bad losing day looks like, 20 losers out of 23 bets with just a few breakeven places. Ahh well, it was still an amazing month so you take the rough with the smooth!

So, let’s get our geek on as usual and look at what that means via the usual trusty stats 😉

Stat Attack

Pursue FIRE EWB Feb

In total, 252 bets were completed across 19 days. That’s an average of 13.3 bets per day, with 34 multiple bets placed.

In total, I turned over volume totalling £6,602 through my chosen bookmakers, yielding a fantastic 37.3% return on investment (ROI).

Of the completed bets:

  • 18 horses were outright winners (7% of total bets)
  • 63 horses placed (25%)
  • 171 horses failed to win or place (68%)

“As stressed in prior updates, you should expect the majority of your bets to be losing bets. The ratio of winners, place and losers is highly consistent

With two £1k+ daily profit days achieved this month, records were being smashed left, right and centre, including the less desirable worst day ever already mentioned! Despite that landmark, the average daily profit for February was a simply brilliant £129, up from £77 in January.

Of course, there are the monthly OddsMonkey subscription fees to deduct, leaving an overall net profit of £2,445 (+61.3% net) for February. While, I don’t count it here, I continue to receive some commission payments from OddsMonkey from people who sign up through the blog. A big thank you to those that have. This more than covers my month subscription costs 🙂

So with another month in the bag, let’s quickly recap what this all means for the results since inception with eight completed months under my belt….

Since Inception Results

Here is a glimpse of the since inception chart that lives on the live results page, updated through the end of February. As always, this details the daily profit or loss (blue bars) and the cumulative profit or loss (green line).

Pursue FIRE EWB Feb

As the stats table breaks out above, the overall return comes in at just over 1,170%! You can see the overall stats in the table above if interested.

What’s Working

Some of the jjjjnewer members of the EWB Slack community are, in my opinion, overly focused on the daily profits or losses and losing sight of the longer-term value that EWB quite clearly provides.

So, I thought I would add a few additional charts from my own results to illustrate some of the key metrics I like to pay attention to in judging success over time.

Long-Run Return on Equity (ROI)

While day-to-day results can be volatile, over the longer-term a profitable approach should yield a positive ROI. Many in the betting community consider an ROI of between 6-10% highly desirable. The more observations there are the more meaningful this figure becomes.

With more than 2,300 completed bets, here is my ROI chart since inception, currently averaging around 20%.

Pursue FIRE EWB Feb

Bank Drawdown

I often get questions about bank size and drawdowns. For me at least, my original starting capital of just over £500 has barely been touched. My first month (July) was a minor loss of around 5% of my bank (-£27), but since then it’s just compounded nicely upwards. So, while there are periods where my profits have been clipped to the downside, my actual starting cash is a long way from being at risk now.

To illustrate this, the charts below plot my total bank (daily) over time (the blue shaded area) and also marks the bank high watermark (green dotted line) and the bank low watermark (red dotted line). Below, that I show the drawdowns on my bank from peak profit levels.

This shows that my bank is (on average) capturing 96% of my peak balance since inception. Of course, by only risking a small percentage of my bank on a given day, this protects to the downside. These micro-drawdowns as I like to call them, are from pure profit (rather than from my starting cash). To date, these have yet to exceed a 25% drop from peak,which is a very conservative number in my opinion.

Those of you that were betting in November may recall what a grind it was to turn a profit and that there were some poor runs during the month. This shows on the charts below but November was still a profitable month so I hope that gives some perspective for those just getting started.

Pursue FIRE EWB Feb
Pursue FIRE EWB Feb

Ratio of Winners to Losers

As I stress in my monthly reports, you should expect the majority of the bets you place to flat out lose.… stake lost, down the pan… see ya! The truth is, that with displined risk management we are perfectly accepting of this fact, because its the few winners that more than pay for all the losing bets.

The following lava-chart shows my ratio of winning (green), placed (amber) and losing bets (red) over time. Notice the consistency here? On average, 65% of all bets have been losers, 26% have been placed bets, and just 9% have been winners. Go figure!

Pursue FIRE EWB Feb

Risk Budget

When I started out I adopting a very strict 1% risk per bet rule. I felt this was helpful as I got comfortable with the process and started to build momentum.

Over time my risk per bet has actually (and intentionally) decreased as my profits have grown. This has not slowed down my profit-making potential. I also, subconsciously put a 10% of bank cap of daily bets. This just felt like a sensible level. Truth be told, I’m hard pushed to find that many bets in a given day to get close to that threshold but as the chart below will show, its naturally come out at around that level.

The following chart shows the per bet risk (left axis) and the risk per day (right axis) over time. The average risk per bet is currently 0.7% of the bank, and the average risk per day is currently 10%.

Pursue FIRE EWB Feb

A Note on Gubbings

The last two months, in particular, has seen some very sizeable individual bet wins for me with certain bookmakers. Almost inevitably this quickly led to my first set of restrictions (or gubbings to use the local lingo)– they really don’t want people who consistently take money from them…. its bad for business!

So with big wins, come account problems. Some bookmakers restricted me down to less than a pound maximum stake (essentially rendering them useless accounts for EWB). Others seem to be restricting my stake size in some, but not all selections – it seems to be mainly on high priced odds selections. So while, still not optimal, these accounts are still usable depending on the individual selections.

But this is really a minor inconvenience. There are hundreds of bookmakers out there to use. I think I have actually been quite lucky to go 7-8 months without facing any restrictions despite pulling consistent profits each month. Maybe January and February were a tipping point of sorts, with profits growing to a more significant and notable level.

I don’t really know – I don’t always think there is a rhyme or reason to these things. One of the accounts I opened this month (Paddy Power) restricted me after only £8 profit on the account. I think they are owned by Betfair however, who had earlier restricted me so it might be due to that. Others that fell away included SkyBet, Betfred, Ladbrokes and Coral.

Plenty more fish in the sea and its good to see that it in no way limited profits during the impacted months – January and February have been easily my best two months to date.

Slack Community Update

As shared in previous monthly reports, I recently set up a dedicated community for Each Way Betting using the Slack platform. The purpose of this group is to connect and chat with other people following each way betting strategies and share tips and tricks along the way.

In short order, the group has grown significantly in the space of just two months and is now 50 people strong. It has proved a rich resource for everyone and much valuable advice has been shared.

However, with size comes complexity. Due to the phenomenal success, and with one eye of keeping the group size optimal, I have therefore decided to close the open invite to the group going forward. I’ll still consider selective invites and should any people decide to leave, and thereby free up space, will consider opening it again in the future.

So, that’s it from me for February. As always, drop me a note below and let me know how you fared this month. Hopefully, it was a profitable month for you all and sets us up nicely for the Cheltenham Festival in March.

And don’t forget the Full Guide to Each Way Betting if you need any guidance and my spreadsheet to record your bets.

Until the next time!

This Post Has 3 Comments

  1. Sorry to hear you had a losing month! All in all though, it seems like EW is doing very well for you. I wanted to drop by and say thank you for your super clear and comprehensive EW guide and your excellent spreadsheet. I’ve been using the spreadsheet for my bets everyday, and it just makes the whole process so much easier, and incredibly satisfying to have the daily and monthly calculations done automatically (especially if it shows green!). It’s much appreciated.

  2. Thanks for your comment Mindy. EWB is still doing great for me despite losing in March. April has seen a return to form and (to date) has more than recouped these losses so all is good. Glad you found the spreadsheet and the guide helpful too – it’s always great to get positive feedback. Are you managing to do EWB while overseas?

  3. Thanks for your response – I’ve been doing it since I returned to the UK this year. April has not been going as well as March for me, but still in the black, so all good!

Leave a Reply

about

Hello and welcome to Pursue FIRE. My name is Dan and I am the owner and author of all content on this site. I am passionate about personal finance and look forward to engaging with you.
Read More

subscribe

We keep your data private and share your data only with third parties that make this service possible. See our Privacy Policy for more information.

Must read

recent posts

OddsMonkey

follow me on twitter

what i'm reading

‘Moneyland’ examines how corrupt politicians and oligarchs move vast sums through shell companies in offshore tax havens before spending it in the world’s playgrounds for the mega-wealthy. This book is highly compelling.

Close Menu