Each Way Betting Report #4 – October

This is the Pursue FIRE Each Way Betting Report. Each Way Betting is a side-hustle in testing. Starting with a bank of £500, horses are selected for ‘each way bets’ based on nothing other than their perceived statistical value across a number of bookmakers using specialised software from OddsMonkey

Each month I summarise my results and offer insights, tips, and tricks and show my real numbers. To learn more about Each Way Betting and how you can get started, please check out my Full Guide To Each Way Betting.

Each Way Betting Report

Welcome back for another update on the Each Way Betting experiment! If you missed the write-ups for previous months, you can catch them in all their glory here:

In addition, I maintain a live results page that updates automatically each day as bets are settled. As its becoming bigger (now 4 months) I’m working on relocating this to its own dedicated full-width page to show it in all its glory, but for now, it’s still where it is, but it can be maximised by clicking on the expand button at the foot of the chart 🙂

Before we continue, please note that this post includes affiliate links to OddsMonkey. In my opinion, Each Way Betting would not be possible without the brilliant Each Way Matcher Tool. If you are interested to try it out, please consider following the link. You can try the features out and OddsMonkey offer a full 30-day, 100% money-back guarantee if it’s not for you.

So after near 50% returns back-to-back in August and September could the amazing results continue into October?

October Results:

A picture paints a thousand words….  so, as always, let’s take a look at how the month panned out in graphical form. The blue bars represent the daily profit or loss, while the green line represents the cumulative profit or loss …

What a pleasing picture indeed as the results kept on coming during October. In fact, it turned out to be yet another record month! 😉

Overall, the total bank increased 65.9% this month, bringing home a whopping £693 in profits. Since July, that’s a cumulative return of 244% taking a starting bank of £507 to £1,744.

Let’s get our geek on and look at some trusty stats 😉

Stat Attack

The most significant development during October was the increase in staking amount from £5 to £10. I chose to do this as the initial bank had successfully doubled from £500 to £1,000. It was, therefore, necessary to correct the drift in risk budget and ensure it was back up to 1% risk per trade (i.e. £10 total stakes). Staying at £5 total stakes would have been 0.5% risk per trade – a little too risk-averse.

Higher absolute staking (but still capped at 1% risk) obviously means higher absolute potential returns (or losses). Thankfully, October was not the month for that to occur although it was characterised by a slowish first few weeks, with the bulk of profits coming later in the period. 

In total, 421 bets were completed across 24 days in what was easily my most active month yet. That’s an average of 17.5 bets per day, which is slightly higher than before but mostly explained by the introduction of more multiple bets (doubles, trebles etc).

In total, I turned over significantly more volume totalling £4,046 through my chosen bookmakers, yielding a 17.1% return on investment (ROI).

Of the completed bets:

  • 43 horses were outright winners (10% of total bets)
  • 107 horses placed (25%)
  • 272 horses failed to win or place (65%)

“As stressed in prior updates, you should expect the majority of your bets to be losing bets. But its still amazing that its possible to lose your stake 65% of the time, yet return a 66% growth in bank”

The best daily profit was £172.45, and the worst down day was -£107.50. This meant that an average daily profit for October was a healthy £28.86.

In terms of bank highs and lows, I came close to finishing at an all-time high, but a £54 losing day on the last day of the month – I blame Halloween 🙂 prevented that from happening. That being said, I’m not complaining as it still meant capturing 97% of the maximum bank high watermark.

In contrast, the bank low was £1,033 – only an £18 drawdown from our starting position of £1,051. 

Of course, there are the monthly OddsMonkey subscription fees to deduct, leaving an overall net profit of £675 (+64.2%) for October…. pretty decent I have to say!

So with October officially a wrap, let’s quickly recap what this all means for the experiment to date, now that there are our completed months under our belts…

Since Inception Results

Here is a glimpse of the since inception chart that lives on the live results page, updated through the end of October. As always, this details the daily profit or loss (blue bars) and the cumulative profit or loss (green line)

As the stats table breaks out above, the overall return comes in at +200%. A few highlights include:

  • 1,102 total bets have been completed across 82 days. That’s an average of around 13.2 bets per day.
  • £7,437 has been turned over through my chosen bookmakers, yielding a very decent 16.6% return on investment and generating £1,165 in net profits
  • In terms of outright winners, 127 have come in first past the post (12% of total bets); 296 horses placed (27%) and 680 horses failed to win or place (62%)
  • The best daily profit overall is £172, and the worst down day was -£108. Average daily profit is running at £14 overall.
  • In terms of bank highs and lows, the current high water mark is £1,798 (which would represent a 255% return), and the low point is all the way back in July when we hit £464 (which would represent a -8.3% overall return) – that’s a pretty compelling risk:reward profile
  • Net of all OddsMonkey subscription costs (4 months), overall profit is now £1,092 (or +215%).

Don’t Be Gross!

It’s important to remember that these profits are free from any taxation, so it’s always a fun exercise to consider how much one would have had to earn via the day job in order to have brought in the equivalent sums, net of the tax man’s take. 

By my rough calculations, I would have had to be earning close to £22,000 more per year (gross) on top of my existing wage, to bring home the same £693 that each way betting brought me in October (assuming a scenario where I earned £693 more per month every month for a year)

Even more important is that I estimate that I spend roughly an hour a day total in this endeavour (aside from writing guides and monthly updates of course). So overall, that’s £1,165 net profits to date for 82 hours of work (roughly £14 per hour).

Experiment Conclusion

When I began the experiment back in July I committed a suitably small amount of money and a time frame (minimum 3 months or 1,000 completed bets) over which I was prepared to try each way betting before drawing any meaningful conclusions.

This involved staying the course and betting every day where practically possible, no dipping in or out or taking days off after a losing run, just rinse and repeat. The headwind here is always variance, so the more completed bets that are made, the more meaningful all of the stats become. 

So, with my original target of 3 months and/or 1,000 bets completed, I am officially calling an end to the experiment phase of each way betting. Will I be continuing? You bet I will …. did you see what I did there 😉

I’m convinced its worth the small amount of time needed to generate a very good rate of return. How long will it last? Is there a nasty month around the corner? Quite possibly, but I’ll stay the course.

Remember this is just one of a number of side-hustles I am pursuing.

Winter Is Coming

Ask any Stark and they will inform you that ‘winter is coming’ Those men in black speak a lot of sense 😉

As I mentioned last month, I expect the volume of racing to ease somewhat over the winter months. Increasing amounts of bad weather and potential for race cancellations or horses dropping out will serve to cap the available opportunities to bet every day. Just something to keep in mind if you are just getting started. Hopefully, no White Walkers show up!

What, if anything will I be changing in November?

As well as the weather consideration, there are a few other things I’ll be personally doing or considering in November:

  • Discipline – while profits have been exceptional, its important (for me at least) not to suddenly ramp up the ante too quickly. It’s tempting to boost my betting bank with additional funds, but I’m sure that losing month will occur at some stage, and I’m happy to keep building things at a sensible click
  • Staking – That being said, with November’s starting bank at £1,777 – £10 total stakes are once again sub-optimal for my 1% risk goal, so I’m upping my stakes now to £8 each way (£16 totals)
  • Controlling Emotions – as I write this update I reflect on day 1 results for November which were not pretty – stakes have been upped to £16 as pointed out, and it can feel like you have made an error or that the betting gods have turned on you when you have a losing day. But, the process is exactly the same as in previous months – risking 1% per bet so I’m confident that November will go onto be another profitable month 😉

So, that’s me! How are you getting on with Each Way Betting? Are you getting similar results? I’d love to hear how you’re getting on.

During the month, I was asked by a reader of the blog (Alex) for some assistance with a spreadsheet and was only too happy to provide a copy of mine, complete with all my results to date. If you are reading this Alex – I’d love to hear how you are getting on! Hopefully, you have had a profitable first few weeks 🙂

I’ll add a link to download a Google Sheet template in the days ahead. Feel free to take this and adapt as necessary to your own tastes. And don’t forget the Full Guide to Each Way Betting if you need any guidance.

Until the next time

Dan

OddsMonkey

This Post Has 11 Comments

  1. Great going on the EW betting. I didn’t have a great October but still managed a very small profit after being in a loss for a couple of weeks. I’m still under £5EW stakes, perhaps I’ll consider increasing next year for something different. I use mostly gubbed accounts so not sure how stake restricted I will be with those.

  2. Thanks for commenting Weenie – October was certainly a topsy-turvy month and a good chunk of my gains were achieved in just a handful of days. I find a ‘normal’ day is to bag a winner or two, a couple of places and the bulk being losing bets. In these scenarios, it tends to be a mostly flat day (maybe up or down £10-20). If that’s the norm, then the downside risk is pretty minimal, but you do get days where everything loses and the only places you achieve are short odds horses where you do well to make any profit. I certainly had a few of those days last month, which at increased stakes, makes you sweat a little. But I believe in the ‘extraction of value’ principle that over time, should bear fruit. As I talk about in the post above, I’m over a 1,000 bets in now with a mid-teens ROI which has stayed pretty consistent for 2-3 months. I know statistics such as those above may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but I play closer attention to these than the headline profit or loss essentially as they tell their own story of whether its working or not. Let’s hope that November goes well. I upped my stakes again and (sod’s law of course) had a stinker first day, but recouped some of that on Friday. Good luck Weenie! Dan

  3. Your each way betting guide is one of the best I have seen, thanks very much for putting it together. I am excited to hear you are going to make a spreadsheet template available. I’ve been impressed by your data and analysis so far, and this will really help me manage things as I get started 🙂

    1. Hi Steve – thanks for your positive comments. It was quite a task to write it in clear and simple terms so I’m glad you have enjoyed it. I will (as promised) get a template up in the next week or so to help you and others get started on the bet tracking side of things.

      Many thanks

      Dan

      1. I know this is incredibly cheeky, but do you think you are close to having a shareable spreadsheet? 🙂 I am getting ready to start each way betting (having built my bank up), and this would be invaluable!
        Again, apologies for being cheeky!

        1. Hi Steve – not cheeky at all as I did imply (I think) that one would be forthcoming. The problem is that my spreadsheet is so vast now, I quickly realised that it would be difficult to navigate for someone starting fresh. But the good news is that right now (as I type this) I have just simplified what needed simplifying ready for sharing on here. It still has some complexity to it (lots of automation) but I think its almost ready for external consumption. As well as putting it up on here, I may also do a few short videos to walk through its features and how to get the best out of it. I hope to have an initial file up on here, hopefully by this evening.

          Of course, there is nothing to stop you betting while you wait, but I can appreciate having a clean start with regards data capture would be preferable – just remember that one man’s spreadsheet heaven can be another’s nightmare lol, but I’ve tried to make it as simple and automated as possible.

          So check back over the weekend and I’m 99% certain something will be ready

          Cheers!

          Dan

          1. Amazing, thank you!
            And fear not, I am no stranger to complex spreadsheets. Bring em on I say 🙂
            Thank you once again.

  4. First day yesterday using your guide and a starting bank of £1,300.

    Profit for Day 1 was £123.97. That’s it, I’m handing in my notice at work.

    Joking of course, but great start. Bring on the losses that will inevitably follow to balance it out, but your blog and live results tracker will keep me invested in this long-term to see out the peaks and troughs. This is a really motivating blog – please do keep it going.

    Dan – quick Q for you RE staking. When do you look to scale your stakes up or down?

    For example, I have rounded my stakes down to the nearest thousand so with a £1,300 starting bank I’m using £10.00 stakes (£5 E/W). Question is, if my bank drops below £1,000, at what point would you recommend scaling my staking down?

    I was planning to get to £2,000 then up to £10.00 E/W stakes.

    Thanks

    1. Hi Rob and congratulations on getting started. One of the main reasons I upload results daily is to remind myself and others of the long-game and not to be deterred by the daily or even weekly/monthly swings. As I think it shows (to date at least) the results have been consistently strong despite some bad individual days or even a string of bad ones. I’m just banking on the edge playing out over a cycle of thousands of trades – evidenced by a consistent return on equity of between 14-16% each month (this is different to overall cash return) – ROI is a measure of profit for each unit of risk taken, so its simply total profit divided by total staked amount

      With the staking its a personal choice. I personally aim to maintain a 1% risk per bet at the start of every month (adjusting up or down accordingly based on the results of the previous month). Assuming all goes well and profits are good, I’ll only up my stakes at the start of the next month in order to correct the ‘risk-drift’. i.e. if you don’t amend your stakes as your bank grows, your risk per bet is going to gradually fall unnecessarily low and limit your profit potential.

      So each month I re-set my staking to be 1% of my bank and wait to see where I get to by month-end. Of course, ensuring speedy bet entries also plays a part in this decision – i.e. nice round numbers or increments rather than typing an exact 1% with decimals (e.g. £6.57 each way will be painful hundreds of times a week! – where £7 or £8 will be fine 🙂

      The contrast, however, is if I am down at any time. For example, I started this month (November) with £16 stakes (£8 each-way bets) – which reflected a little under 1% of my bank at the start of the month (£1,745 ish). However, on November 1st I had a bad day and lost £150 or so (about 8% of my bank) so I immediately dropped by stakes down a little to £14 (£7 each way). Despite now being significantly up for the month, I’ve kept them at this level till month-end and will then assess.

      As I said, its a personal choice but I would suggest lowering stakes without delay if you are getting hammered, but waiting to up them until you have banked a good amount of profit. I suspect the key to this game long-term is risk management and discipline – especially in handling losing runs.

      I look forward to hearing how you are getting on

      Dan

  5. Great progress on each way betting. I had my first losing month in October but November is looking good now. How many accounts have you had restricted in that time period? I’ve had about 3 since July and i’ve made about 1100 bets so far using 10 accounts at any one time although some bookies are just too generous!
    Thanks

    Alan

    1. Hi Alan – glad to hear that you have bounced back from October. November a bit of a roller coaster but sitting on profit still so that’s the main thing:-)

      Maybe somewhat surprisingly I’ve yet to have a single account restricted! I’m using about 7 right now, all of which are the main big brands, so I’ve yet to go down the quality ladder to some of the more unknown bookies. 10 or so at anyone one time is plenty enough for me. I can’t really think why I’ve not been restricted yet as one or two I’ve taken over £1k from them from just a £100 or quid initially deposited. Others I have lost money so I just recycle profits from one to another to maintain healthy balances. The only thing I can think of that may have helped me avoid restricting is that I do all my betting on my phone, whereas I use OddsMonkey on my PC or iPad. I certainly don’t route my bets through OddsMonkey to the underlying bookies (perhaps that gives them a tell-tale sign, IP addresses etc, that you are using betting software) and maybe that does you no favours. I can’t say for sure but I suspect that may have helped me avoid their clutches thus far (now in month 5).

      I wish you continued success!

      Thanks

      Dan

Leave a Reply

about

Hello and welcome to Pursue FIRE. My name is Dan and I am the owner and author of all content on this site. I am passionate about personal finance and look forward to engaging with you.
Read More

Must read

recent posts

OddsMonkey

follow me on twitter

what i'm reading

‘Moneyland’ examines how corrupt politicians and oligarchs move vast sums through shell companies in offshore tax havens before spending it in the world’s playgrounds for the mega-wealthy. This book is highly compelling.

Close Menu